Fitch Affirms Mongolia’s Credit Rating at ‘B+’ with Stable Outlook

Ulaanbaatar, September 3, 2025 /MONTSAME/. The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Mongolia’s credit rating at “B+, Stable”, citing stable economic growth and prudent fiscal management.

The report states that the primary risk to maintaining the credit rating is the country’s vulnerability to external influences, whereas the key positive factors include a stable economic growth outlook and a steady decline in government debt.

The agency’s report projects that Mongolia’s GDP growth will reach 5.7 percent in 2025 and 5.3 percent in 2026-2027. In 2025, the agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, while copper exports have largely offset the impact of falling coal prices. The report also highlights that investment in the mining sector remains stable, while non-mining activities continue to support medium-term economic growth.

In addition, the Mongolian government has strengthened fiscal discipline and maintained the budget deficit within acceptable limits in recent years. Fitch estimates that government debt will decline to below 40 percent of GDP in the medium term. The report also notes that prudent management of external debt has enabled the refinancing of a portion of foreign bonds maturing in the coming years, thereby easing the repayment burden in 2026-2027.

While foreign exchange reserves remain stable, Mongolia’s reliance on raw material exports and high financing levels continues to pose a risk, with inflation expected to average 8.5 percent in 2025-2026, driven by domestic demand, credit growth, and rising consumer prices.